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The recent, apparently successful prediction by mathematical models of an appearance of EI Nino- the warm ocean current that periodically develops along (5) the Pacific coast of South America-has excited researchers. Jacob Bjerknes pointed out over 20 years ago how winds might create either abnormally warm or abnormally cold water in the eastern (10) equatorial Pacific. Nonetheless, until the development of the models no one could explain why conditions should regularly shift from one to the other, as happens in the periodic oscillations (15) between appearances of the warm EI Nino and the cold so-called anti-El Nino. The answer, at least if the current model that links the behavior of the ocean to that of the atmosphere is (20) correct, is to be found in the ocean. It has long been known that during an El Nino, two conditions exist: (1) unusually warm water extends along the eastern Pacific, principally along the (25) coasts of Ecuador and Peru, and (2) winds blow from the west into the warmer air rising over the warm water in the east. These winds tend to create a feedback mechanism by driving the warmer (30) surface water int a "pile" that blocks the normal upwelling of deeper, cold water in the east and further warms the eastern water, thus strengthening the wind still more. The contribution of (35) the model is to show that the winds of an El Nino, which raise sea level in the cast, simultaneous...
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